AGP Executive Report

Sudan accountability push: Sudanese survivors filed a war crimes complaint in Kenya against alleged RSF commanders, accusing them of torture, rape, sexual slavery and arbitrary detention linked to Khartoum between April 2023 and March 2025—Kenya’s DPP has stamped the case. Humanitarian protection gaps: UNHCR is urged to strengthen urgent protection for Sudanese journalists trapped in Libya, with calls for rapid resettlement as threats and harassment rise. Aid system abuse in Chad: MSF says an internal investigation found 59 reports of harassment and sexual exploitation of female refugees in eastern Chad, dismissing 18 staff and barring them from future work. Food security warning: UN agencies warn hunger is set to worsen in 13 hotspots, naming Sudan among the most at-risk as conflict and shrinking aid bite. Climate displacement link: IOM chief Amy Pope warns that cuts to development aid are pushing more people to flee—citing Sudan as the world’s largest displacement crisis. Regional policy shift: The EU’s first visit to Khartoum since 2023 signals a more pragmatic approach to Sudan policy.

Wildlife Crime: Conservationists warn vulture populations in central Africa are being hit as belief-based demand spreads from Nigeria and Benin into Chad, where poisoned carcasses and live poaching are pushing critically endangered hooded vultures away from slaughterhouses and landfill sites. Justice & Conflict Impacts: Sudanese survivors filed a war crimes complaint in Kenya against alleged RSF commanders tied to abuses around Khartoum from April 2023 to March 2025, including torture, rape and arbitrary detention. Humanitarian Pressure: The UN marks World Refugee Day as displacement tops 117M globally; aid groups say shrinking support is worsening conditions for people fleeing Sudan. Food Security Risk: UN food agencies warn acute hunger will worsen in 13 hotspots, naming Sudan among the most at-risk. Aid System Abuse: MSF says an internal investigation in eastern Chad found harassment and sexual exploitation allegations involving refugees from Sudan, leading to 18 dismissals. Policy Signals: The EU sent a first visit to Khartoum since 2023, hinting at a more pragmatic shift in Sudan engagement.

EU–Khartoum Diplomacy: The EU sent heads of mission to Khartoum for the first time since 2023, signaling a more pragmatic shift after years of distance and sanctions—an opening that could reshape how international actors engage Sudan’s war reality. Aid Cuts & Displacement: UN migration chief Amy Pope warned that cuts to development and humanitarian funding are pushing more people to flee—citing Sudan as the world’s biggest displacement crisis and warning that short-term political decisions deepen long-term instability. Food Security Pressure: UN agencies warn acute hunger will worsen in 13 hotspots, with Sudan flagged among the most at-risk as conflict, economic shocks, climate stress, and shrinking aid collide. Humanitarian Abuse in Chad: MSF says an internal investigation found 59 reports of harassment, abuse, and sexual exploitation of women refugees in eastern Chad, dismissing 18 staff—underscoring how displacement can turn dangerous even inside aid systems. Sudan’s Women & War Impacts: A new investigation highlights systematic sexual violence against women and girls in Sudan, describing survivors’ long-term harm amid collapsed health and justice support.

Sudan’s climate hit: A new report ranks Sudan among the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring how war damage and displacement are piling onto environmental stress. Conflict-linked abuse in Chad: MSF says an internal probe in eastern Chad found 59 cases of harassment, abuse and sexual exploitation of Sudanese women and girls, leading to the dismissal of 18 staff—an alarming reminder that humanitarian systems can fail survivors. War’s gender toll in Sudan: A separate investigation describes conflict-related sexual violence as a long-term crisis shaped by stigma, weak health and mental health support, and stalled justice. Oil and infrastructure pressure (regional context): Nigeria’s regulator flags infrastructure limits and asset integrity problems as key constraints on oil output growth—relevant for regional resource security and environmental risk management. Water and displacement risks: Coverage also highlights how water shortages and sanitation gaps are disrupting education and increasing vulnerability for children in the wider region. Humanitarian forecasting push (UAE): The UAE is exploring an AI-backed early warning hub to help aid groups act before crises escalate.

Climate & Conflict in Sudan: A new report on World Environment Day highlights how Sudan’s war is wrecking ecosystems, vegetation and soil, while displacement and resource shortages are driving encroachment on forests and tree belts—pushing Sudan among the countries most affected by climate and environmental change. Food & Livestock Risk: With drought-stressed forage spreading, guidance warns farmers to watch for nitrate buildup in drought-stressed plants—especially where nitrogen or manure was applied before dry spells—because high nitrates can poison livestock. Water, Children & Protection: In Garissa County, Kenya, a water shortage is keeping children out of school and child trafficking is rising, with leaders calling for urgent action on water, sanitation and hygiene. Sudan in Global Policy: Qatar reiterates support for Sudan’s unity at the UN Human Rights Council, while a separate push urges stronger humanitarian protection pathways for people displaced by crises like Sudan. Community Resilience: Sudan’s women’s soccer team returns to the international stage, defying war and prejudice—an unexpected bright spot amid environmental and humanitarian strain.

Sudan Humanitarian & Rights: Qatar reiterated support for Sudan’s unity at the UN Human Rights Council, warning that the war is driving mass casualties, displacement, and destruction of services, and urging parties to protect civilians and end impunity. Sudan War Dynamics: A new analysis revisits why the RSF’s early rapid-takeover strategy failed, arguing that even if military leadership was initially vulnerable, the lack of a credible alternative after that assumption collapsed helped the conflict drag on. Displacement Pressure (Regional): UNHCR Africa reported Nigeria’s forced displacement hit 3.7 million by April 2025, driven by conflict and insecurity alongside extreme weather—an indicator of how Sudan-linked regional instability can compound migration pressures. Climate & Land Use (Agri): Farming guidance highlighted that irrigation timing is critical for crop establishment and that drought-tolerant teff and other alternative crops can help manage feed and production risks. Verification & Misinformation: A viral video tied to Nigeria’s Oyo State was traced to earlier posts linking similar footage to Sudan’s Blue Nile conflict and livestock displacement, underscoring how quickly Sudan-related images can be misused.

Sudan Conflict & Rights: Qatar told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva it backs Sudan’s unity and urges all sides to protect civilians, end impunity, and allow safe, rapid humanitarian access as the war drives mass casualties and displacement. Regional Security Diplomacy: Saudi and Qatar officials met in Riyadh and reaffirmed full support for efforts to boost regional stability, discussing the US-Iran framework to halt military operations and keep navigation open in the Strait of Hormuz, while also flagging Sudan and Somalia. Displacement & Humanitarian Pressure: A UNHCR update says global forced displacement fell to 118 million in 2025 for the first time in a decade, but the long-term refugee crisis remains, with Sudan still contributing to wider instability. Sudan War Dynamics (Analysis): A column revisits why the RSF’s rapid takeover strategy failed early in Sudan’s war, arguing that political instability didn’t automatically mean institutional collapse. Verification Alert: A viral “herders in Oyo” clip was fact-checked as originating from Sudan’s Blue Nile context, where nomadic groups were preparing to cross amid violence.

Sudan War & Displacement: Qatar reiterated its strong support for Sudan’s unity at the UN Human Rights Council, urging all parties to prioritize national interests, end impunity, and protect civilians while calling for safe, rapid, unhindered humanitarian access. Humanitarian Access Crisis: At the Chad–Sudan border (Adré), AFP reports that funding shortages are threatening UN agencies’ ability to keep operating as more Chadians flee the Sudan war and return home. Conflict Dynamics: A new analysis revisits why the RSF’s rapid takeover strategy failed early in Sudan’s 2023 war, arguing the real problem was the lack of a credible alternative once initial assumptions didn’t hold. Regional Diplomacy: Saudi and Qatari officials met in Riyadh and discussed regional developments including Sudan, alongside the US–Iran agreement on stopping military operations and keeping navigation in the Strait of Hormuz open. Environment & Climate Angle: A separate report flags climate fragility deepening displacement risks across the MENA region—relevant to Sudan’s wider displacement pressures.

Sudan Unity at UN Rights Council: Qatar reiterated strong support for Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, urging parties to prioritize national interests, end impunity, and protect civilians amid the war’s humanitarian and rights fallout. Displacement Pressure at the Chad Border: At Chad’s Adre border post, rising numbers of Chadians fleeing Sudan are arriving, but funding shortages threaten to halt UN agency operations—highlighting how the Sudan conflict keeps spilling into regional humanitarian systems. Aid Logistics Under Strain: UNHCR warned that Middle East conflict disruptions are delaying humanitarian shipments, with sea and air routes affected around the Strait of Hormuz—compounding already tight aid funding for crisis-affected regions including Sudan. Climate & Conflict Risk Lens: A report on global peace trends flagged Sudan among conflicts worsening overall stability, reinforcing how insecurity and climate fragility are tightening displacement risks across the region.

Sudan War Displacement & Aid: At the Chad-Sudan border post of Adre, AFP reports rising numbers of Chadians fleeing Sudan’s war, but UN agencies warn funding shortages could force them to stop operations—leaving returnees and displaced people in limbo under harsh desert conditions. Humanitarian Logistics Under Pressure: UNHCR says Middle East conflict disruptions are delaying some sea shipments into crisis zones, with higher fuel costs and insurance premiums straining delivery of medicines and relief supplies. Forced Migration Snapshot: UNHCR reports forced displacement fell to 118 million in 2025 for the first time in a decade, but long-term refugee crises persist; Sudan is cited among places where returns are increasing despite unsafe conditions. Red Sea Environment & Culture: A Jeddah exhibition, “Red Wind, Coral Worlds,” uses art and archives to trace Red Sea ecological relationships and shared histories across the region—highlighting how movement and displacement shape human-environment ties. Climate & Farming Stress: A FAO-WMO report warns extreme heat is now a structural threat to food systems, accelerating drought and water scarcity and pushing shifts toward water-efficient, controlled-environment farming in hot regions.

Sudan War Spillover at Chad Border: At Adre, rising numbers of Chadians fleeing Sudan are arriving, but UN agencies warn funding shortages could force them to stop operations, leaving families stranded in the desert as people return with supplies and some with those still escaping the fighting. Humanitarian Logistics Under Strain: UNHCR says Middle East escalation is disrupting shipments into crisis zones, with delays around the Strait of Hormuz and higher costs from fuel and insurance—on top of already weakened aid funding. Forced Displacement Update: UNHCR reports the number of people forcibly displaced fell in 2025 for the first time in a decade, yet 117.8 million remain displaced worldwide, with Sudan cited among places driving returns and long-term crisis. Environment Angle—Heat and Food Security: A FAO-WMO warning highlights extreme heat as a structural threat to food systems in the region, accelerating drought and water stress and pushing farmers toward controlled-environment and smarter water-efficient production. Regional Security Context: Ethiopia’s push for sovereign sea access is framed as a sovereignty and integration issue, with implications for stability across the Horn that also affects Sudan’s wider crisis environment.

Humanitarian Logistics: UNHCR says Middle East conflict disruptions are delaying shipments of medicines, vaccines and emergency relief, with maritime diversions around the Strait of Hormuz and higher fuel/insurance costs hitting aid flows into crisis areas. Forced Displacement: A new UNHCR report puts forced migrants at 118 million in 2025—about 1 in 70 people—while noting a first decade drop in new displacement, even as long-term refugee crises persist; Sudan is cited among countries where returns are rising despite harsh conditions. Climate & Water Stress: A Middle East and North Africa report warns heat and water scarcity are worsening alongside conflict and weak services, pushing vulnerable families into a “convergence trap” where they struggle to adapt, move safely, or stay with dignity. Sudan Link in Regional Security Debate: An op-ed argues the Horn is seeing a dangerous convergence of TPLF, Eritrean interests and Al-Shabaab, with external powers—especially Egypt—raising stakes tied to Red Sea and GERD rivalries. Sudan in the Diaspora Spotlight: Reports on Belfast unrest repeatedly mention a Sudanese asylum seeker accused in a stabbing, sparking anti-immigrant violence and renewed debate over migration, safety, and community protection.

Sudan Humanitarian Access: Médecins Sans Frontières says working in Sudan is getting harder as aid groups face rising pressure and staff are targeted, with the war’s worst impacts falling on women, children, and the elderly. Displacement Reality Check: UNHCR reports forcibly displaced people fell to 117.8 million in 2025, but returns often happen under pressure and without real safety—UNHCR says most returns cluster in Afghanistan, Sudan, and Syria. Climate-Conflict Link: A new report warns climate stress across the Middle East and North Africa is tightening a “convergence trap” where heat, water scarcity, weak services, and insecurity reduce options for vulnerable communities—an issue that also shapes displacement patterns reaching Sudan. Food & Heat Risk: Heat is accelerating shifts toward climate-resilient farming in the region, with controlled-environment and water-efficient approaches gaining ground as extreme temperatures threaten yields and farm labor safety. Red Sea Security Context: Egypt and Eritrea’s maritime cooperation deal frames Red Sea governance as a littoral-state responsibility, with Sudan and wider regional instability repeatedly cited as part of the security picture.

Sudan Humanitarian Access: Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) says reaching people in need inside Sudan is getting harder as aid workers face rising pressure and attacks, with the war driving massive displacement, famine risks, and collapsing healthcare access. Displacement Trends: UNHCR reports the number of forcibly displaced people fell to 117.8 million in 2025, but warns most returns happen under pressure and insecurity—highlighting Sudan as one of the key return destinations. Refugee Education in the Region: In Chad’s refugee-hosting areas, efforts to integrate Sudanese students into national schools aim to reduce harmful “parallel” education systems and ease long-term strain on services. Water, Climate, and Conflict Link: A new regional analysis warns climate stress is tightening its grip across the Middle East and North Africa—where water scarcity, conflict, and weak services push vulnerable families into unsafe, low-choice displacement. Aid and Field Reporting: A Canadian humanitarian group says its Sudan mission will assess conditions across Khartoum, Darfur, and Port Sudan and discuss needs around food, clean water, and healthcare. Housing for Displaced Families: Arada and partners expand “Home for a Home,” including plans for sustainable refugee shelters in Chad for people fleeing Sudan, plus water and community support upgrades.

Sudan Humanitarian Access: MSF says reaching people in need inside Sudan is getting harder as aid groups face rising pressure and workers are increasingly targeted, with the war driving mass displacement, famine risks, epidemics, and restricted healthcare access. Displacement Numbers: UNHCR reports forcibly displaced people fell to 117.8 million in 2025, driven by more returns—yet UN officials stress many returns to places like Sudan happen under pressure, without safety or stable services. Refugee Education in the Region: Chad is integrating Sudanese refugee students into the national school system, supported by World Bank and UNHCR, as host-country capacity strains grow. Sudan-Linked Global Climate Migration: A Guardian analysis warns US restrictions are hitting people from climate-vulnerable countries, including Sudan, as climate shocks intensify displacement. Water & Livelihoods: A regional climate piece highlights MENA’s “convergence trap” where water scarcity, conflict, and weak services squeeze families’ options to adapt, move, or stay safely.

Humanitarian Access in Sudan: Médecins Sans Frontières says reaching people in need is getting harder as aid workers face rising pressure and are often targeted, with Sudan’s war driving mass displacement, famine risk, epidemics, and blocked healthcare. Displacement Trends: UNHCR reports forcibly displaced people fell to 117.8 million in 2025, but returns to places like Sudan often happen under pressure, with insecurity and damaged services still widespread. Refugee Education in the Region: Chad is integrating refugee students into the national school system, with UNHCR and the World Bank supporting the shift away from costly parallel schooling—relevant for Sudan-linked displacement spillovers. Sudan-Linked Aid and Media Access: A Canadian humanitarian group says its COO will travel through Khartoum, Darfur, and Port Sudan to assess needs and discuss conditions for displaced families and aid delivery. Policy Pressure on Sudan’s Warring Parties: U.S. senators introduced the PEACE in Sudan Act to increase pressure on external backers and strengthen diplomacy for a negotiated peace—framed as crucial for regional stability and Red Sea commerce. Shelter Funding for Sudan Refugees: Arada and partners plan year-round “Home for a Home” funding, including 3,550 sustainable refugee shelters in Chad for people fleeing Sudan.